Why is Japan in trouble?
The Japanese now have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, and at the same time, one of the highest longevity rates. As a result, the population is dropping rapidly, and becoming increasingly 包養 weighted toward older people. After peaking seven years ago, at 128 million, Japan’s population has been falling — a包養網 nd is on a path to decline by about a million people a year. By 2060, the government estimates, there will be just 87 million people in Japan; nearly half of them will be ov er 65. Without a dramatic change in either the birthrate or its restrictive immigration policies, Japan simply won’t have enough workers to support its retirees, and will enter a demographic death spiral. Yet the babies aren’t coming.
Why not?
The British newspaper The Observer recently caused an international stir by reporting that Japanese youth have lost interest in sex. The sensationalist conclusion was mostly based on a single statistic: a survey that found that 45 percent of women and 25 percent of men ages 16 to 24 said they were not looking to have sex. The article also cited the phrase sekkusu shinai shokogun, or “celibacy syndrome,” as if it were a major trend. In reality, more Japanese singles are having sex than in past decades. In 1990, 65 percent of unmarried women and 45 percent of unmarried men had never had sex; today, the figures are 50 percent and 40 percent, respect ively. “Of course Japanese have sex,” Asian st udies professor Jeff Kingston toldBloomberg.com.” If the number of love hotels is any barometer, it seems like many are getting plenty of it.”
Is celibacy syndrome a myth?
Not entirely. There clearly is a subset of Japanese youth who have withdrawn f rom dating. Instead, they focus on online porn and games like Nintendo’s Love Plus, in which players conduct a relationship with an anime girlfriend. Hundreds of thousands of young men areknown as hikikomori, shut-ins who eschew human contact and spend their days playing video games and reading comics in their parents’ homes. (See below.) But most Japanese young peo ple do have friends and relationships — they’re just not settling down. The marriage rate has plummeted, and with it the birthrate, since out-of-wedlock births are rare in Japan. In 1975, just 21 percent of women and 49 percent of men under 30 had never been married; by 2005, the figures were 60 percent of women and 72 percent of men.
Why aren’t they getting married?
There are both cultural and economic barriers. In Japanese tradition, marriage was more about duty than romantic love. Arranged marriages were the norm well into the 1970s, and even into the 1990s most marriages were facilitated by “go-betweens,” often the grooms’ bosses. Left to their own devices, Japanese men aren’t sure how to find wives — and many are shying away from the hunt, because they simply can’t afford it. Wages have stagnated since the 1990s, while housing prices have shot up. A young Japanese man has good reason to believe that his standard of living would drop immensely if he had to house and support a wife and children — especially considering that his wife likely wouldn’t be working.
Why make that assumption?
In Japan, marriage usually ends a woman’s working career, even though most women are well educated. Once they have a child, women face strong social pressure to quit their jobs and assume very traditional roles, serving both the husband and the child. Mothers who want to keep working are stigmatized and usually find that employers won’t hire them. Child care is scarce and expensive, while Japan’s brutal work culture often demands that employees work more than 50 hours a week. Japanese husbands aren’t much help either — they s pend an average of one hou r a day helping wit h the children and household chores, compared with three hours for husbands in the US and Western Europe. “Yo u end u p being a housewife with no independent income,” bank worker Eri Tomita told The Observer. “It’s not an option for women like me.”
Could this tradition change?
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants it to. This fall, he renamed his economic plan from Abenomics to Wo menomics. “Creating an environment in which women find it comfortable to work,” he told the U.N. General Assembly, “is no longer a matter of choice for Japan. It is instead a matter of the greatest urgency.” He promised to expand day care offerings and promote flexible work arrangements so that women would no longer have to choose between work and childbearing, and he challenged businesses to promote women to senior management. Most economists, though, think that the trends won’t change fast enough to prevent a real demographic crisis. “Sooner or later,” said economics professor Heizo Takenaka, “Japan will have to face the necessity of immigration.”
An epidemic of shut-ins
For years, Takeshi hid from the world, playing video games all night and sleeping all day, eating from a tray his mother left outside his room. He was a hikikomori, one of an estimated 1 million Japanese teens and young men who ha ve become shut-i ns, with virtually no human contact beyond their parents. Some of the hikikomori first withdraw because of some social embarrassment — bad grades, or a romantic rejection. The longer they drop out, the more shame they feel in a society where one’s status and reputation are paramount and hard to change. Parents, and especially mothers, often enable the withdrawal. “In Japan, mothers and sons often have a symbiotic, codependent relationship,” says psychiatrist Tamaki Saito, who first identified the disorder in the 1990s. Takeshi re-entered society after four years, thanks to a government program that sends female outreach counselors known as “rental sisters” to coax the hikikomoriout of the house. But that program doesn’t always work. As one shut-in of 15 years said, “I missed my chance.”
檢查譯文
為什么japan(日本)墮入了生齒危機？
japan(日本)此刻是世界上誕生率最低的國度，與此 同時，也是世界上最長命的國度，是以 japan(日本)的生齒急劇降落，老齡化趨向也越來越嚴重。七年前，japan(日本)生齒到達峰值——1.28億，這之后生齒數開端走下坡路，每年削減近100萬。當局猜測，至2060年，japan(日本)將僅有8700萬生齒，此中近一半是跨越65歲的白叟。假如japan(日本)的誕生率和限制性的移平易近政策沒有年夜的變更，那么這個國度的休息力將無法撫育其曾經退休的怙恃，japan(日本)的生齒逝世亡曲線將浮現螺旋上升的趨向，而誕生率仍堅持較低程度。
為什么誕生率這么低？
英國報紙《察看家》近日報道稱japan(日本)青年對兩性歡愉之事掉往了愛好，這一談吐激發了一場國際口水戰。感到論者得出的結論大都基于單一的查詢拜訪數據：一項查詢拜訪發 現，年紀處于16至24歲的年青人中，45%的女性和25%的男性稱本身不再對性愛感愛好。這篇文章同時提到“sekkusu shinai shokogun”這個短語，意思是“單身主義綜合癥”，這種景象似乎是此刻的重要趨向。現實上，對照曩昔幾十年來說，更多japan(日本)獨身青年曾經開端享用性愛 了。1990年，未婚人群中，65%的女性和45%的男性沒有性經歷，而此刻，這兩個數據分辨降到50%和40%。一位亞洲研討傳授杰夫 金士頓（Jeff Kingston）對彭博消息社稱：“japan(日本)人是當然是有性生涯的，假如情侶飯店的多少數字在某種意義上是一種晴雨表的話，那japan(日本)人的性生涯仍是比擬豐盛的。”
單身主義綜合癥是神話嗎？
不完整是。現今確有一類japan(日本)青年不往約會。取而代之的是，他們專注于收集色情和游戲諸如：任地獄的《愛相隨》（Love Plus），玩家可以與動漫女 友睜開一段愛情。不計其數的年青人成為隱藏青年，持久豹隱并在怙恃的家里玩游戲看動漫。（見下文）可是年夜大都japan(日本)年青人有朋 友和愛情關系——他們只是未安家。成婚率暴跌，隨之而來的誕生率，以及非婚生養率在japan(日本)也很少。1975年，30歲以下的人群中，只要21%的女性和49%的男性從未成婚。截至2005年， 這兩個數據分辨漲至60%和72%。
japan(日本)報酬什么不成婚？
文明妨礙和經濟妨礙同時存在。在japan(日本)傳統中，婚姻不只是浪漫的戀愛，更是一種義務。20世紀70年月，包攬婚姻是常態，甚至到了90年月年夜大都婚姻亦是經由過程中心人先容——凡是是新郎的老板。japan(日本)漢子任由本身自行其是，不了解如何找到老婆——并且良多人羞于獵艷，由於他們的確付出不起。20世紀90年月薪酬就曾經停止，但是房價卻在狂漲。japan(日本)年青男性有充足的來由信任，假如他必需還房貸以及贍養老婆和兒女，那么他的生涯水準會極年夜地降落——尤其是在老婆就業這種情形下。
為什么會做出那種假定？
在japan(日本)，婚姻凡是意味著女性工作的停止，即便年夜大都女性受過傑出的教導。一旦她們有了孩子，女人們因面對強盛的社會壓力而不得不告退，并飾演相夫教子的傳統腳色。那些想持續任務的母親們，往往遭到輕視，並且雇主們不愿雇傭她們。保育稀缺且昂貴，但jap an(日本)殘暴的任務文明卻凡是請求雇員們每周任務50小時以上。japan(日本)丈夫們也幫不上忙——比起美國和歐洲丈夫們天天3小時的育兒和家務休息，他們均勻天天破費一小時輔助育兒以 及做家務。銀行雇員惠理 托米塔（Eri Tomita）對《察看家》稱，“成為家庭主婦意味著自力經濟起源的停止，這不是我這種女人的選擇 。”
這種傳統會轉變嗎？
輔弼安倍晉三想要轉變它。今秋，他把經濟打算從安倍經濟重定名為女性經濟。他在結合國年夜會上講話“為女性發明一種溫馨的任務周遭的狀況，已不是japan(日本)的一種選擇，而是最緊急的題目。”他許諾擴展日間護理辦事，增添機動的任務設定，為了使japan(日本)女性不再在任務和育兒上做決定。與此同時，安倍呼吁企業選拔女性高管。大都經 濟學家以為，這種趨向不會快到發生一場真正的生齒危機。經濟學傳授竹中平躲（Heiz o Takenaka）稱“japan(日本)遲早將面對必需移平易近的景況。”
豹隱的風行
近些年來，武石（Takeshi）非常避世，他徹夜打電玩，白日睡覺，吃母親放在房子裡面的飯。他就是隱藏青年，除了怙恃再沒人接觸他們的百萬青少年中的一 員。一些隱藏青年開初是由於一些困頓諸如：蹩腳的成就或許是掉戀。他們避世的時光越久，在這小我們位置和名聲至關主要的社會中，他們越感低微，這種情形很 難有所轉變。他們的怙恃，特殊是母親，常常縱容本身孩子如許做。精力病學家玉木宏齊藤（Tamaki Saito）稱：“在japan(日本)，母親和兒子凡是有一種共棲，共存的關系。”他在90年月第一次發明了這個希奇的景象。一項以“租賃姐妹”著稱的當局打算，即為哄說謊宅男走落發門而分撥婦女做參謀的打算， 使武石四年后從頭熟悉了社會。但是這項打算并沒有一直見效，就像一個避世在家15年的宅男說的那樣：“我錯掉了機遇。”